Aerosol Masking

DISCLAIMER — Real, Genuinely Disputed Science, No Framework Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, verified science with an honest methodological spread + NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge

What this is

• Real background mechanism: anthropogenic sulfate aerosols mask a portion
• of greenhouse-gas warming; because aerosols are short-lived, rapid
• reductions can "unmask" warming faster than expected.
• The real 2020 IMO shipping-fuel sulfur regulation (3.5% → 0.5% cap,
• ~80% SO2 emission reduction) as the concrete real-world event.
• An honest spread of independent radiative-forcing estimates
• (0.06-0.09 W/m² multi-model mean; 0.139±0.019 W/m² UKESM1; up to
• 0.2±0.11 W/m² in the highest independent estimate) — this package does
• not pick one number and present it as settled; the spread itself (about
• a factor of 3 across methods) is the honest finding.
• Jordan & Henry (2024, Earth's Future 12(8)): a real, bounded estimate
• that IMO2020 could accelerate reaching a given global warming level by
• up to ~3 years using the UKESM1 model.
• Watson-Parris et al. (2025, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics* 25,
• 4443-4454)**: a real, more recent relativizi

…

aerosol-masking-utac

[](https://github.com/GenesisAeon) [](https://github.com/GenesisAeon/aerosol-masking-utac/actions/workflows/ci.yml) [](https://www.python.org) [](LICENSE) [](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21761775)

GenesisAeon Package 88 — real aerosol-masking / shipping-sulfur "unmasking" science (IMO 2020). Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• Aerosol masking mechanism and the 2020 IMO shipping-fuel sulfur
• regulation (3.5% → 0.5% cap, ~80% SO2 reduction).
• An honest spread of independent radiative-forcing estimates (0.06 to
• ~0.2 W/m² across different studies/methods) — not a single cherry-picked
• number.
• Jordan & Henry (2024, Earth's Future): up to ~3 years of accelerated
• warming (UKESM1 model).
• Watson-Parris et al. (2025, ACP)*: a real, more recent relativizing
• finding that the global 20-year mean temperature signal is statistically
• consistent with no discernible global response — kept front and
• center, not buried.

Quickstart

bash pip install aerosol-masking-utac

```python from aerosol_masking_utac import rf_spread_wm2, watson_parris_2025_summary

low, high = rf_spread_wm2() print(f"Independent RF estimates span {low}-{high} W/m^2") print(watson_parris_2025_summary()) ```

Development

bash pip install -e ".[dev]" pre-commit install ruff check src tests mypy src pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.