GenesisAeon
P18 · v1.3.2 · 2026-08-02
Amoc
amoc-utac
GenesisAeon Package 18. Models the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a UTAC dynamical system with CREP tensor coupling. Central result: Γ_AMOC = arctanh(η=0.50) / σ=2.2 ≈ 0.251, placing AMOC in the medium-CREP regime. Γ is a calibration within a comparison coordinate system, not evidence of shared physics with other domains -- neural criticality (Package 20) lands at the same Γ because it shares the same η and σ inputs, not because of an independently discovered cross-domain law.
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Technische Dokumentation (Englisch)
Paket-DOI
10.5281/zenodo.21432660Eigene Archiv-DOI dieses Repos (CITATION.cff / .zenodo.json), nicht die zitierten Studien.
Quellen-DOIs
Literatur je Paket
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course authors: - family-names: van Westen given-names: René M. - family-names: Kliphuis given-names: Michiel - family-names: Dijkstra given-names: Henk A. journal: "Science Advances" volume: 10 issue: 6 year: 2024 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Science Advances, 2024
10.1126/sciadv.adk1189Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the AMOC
Nature Communications, 2023
10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w
Schlagworte
README
Technische Dokumentation (Englisch)
amoc-utac
GenesisAeon Package 18 — Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as UTAC System
<p align="center"> <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19645351"><img src="https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.19645351.svg" alt="DOI (GenesisAeon Whitepaper)"/></a> <a href="LICENSE"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-blue.svg" alt="MIT License"/></a> <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/docs-CC%20BY%204.0-lightblue.svg" alt="CC BY 4.0"/></a> <a href="https://github.com/GenesisAeon/genesis-os"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/part%20of-genesis--os-blueviolet" alt="Part of genesis-os"/></a> <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/UTAC-package%2018-orange" alt="Package 18"/> </p>
AMOC modelled as UTAC dynamical system with physics-based early-warning from van Westen et al. (2024).
Key result: Γ_AMOC ≈ 0.251 (medium-CREP). Neural criticality (Package 20) lands at the same Γ because it shares the same η = 50 % and σ = 2.2 calibration inputs — a shared comparison coordinate, not evidence of shared physics between the two domains.
Installation
bash pip install amoc-utac
For development:
bash pip install -e ".[dev]"
Quickstart
bash amoc-utac run --duration 120 amoc-utac tipping-estimate amoc-utac zenodo-export
Integration in genesis-os
python from genesis_os import GenesisOS os = GenesisOS() amoc = os.load_package(18) results = amoc.run_cycle(duration_years=120)
Benchmark
Validated against RAPID array, van Westen 2024 & Ditlevsen 2023.
Falsifiable Prediction
AMOC crosses 50 % weakening (H* = 0.5 K) between 2045–2065.
Scientific Context — Consensus vs. Single Studies (added 2026-08-01, corrected 2026-08-02)
The Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen (2023) tipping-year estimate this package compares against is a real, published, but more alarmist single study, not the mainstream consensus. Important: the paper was itself corrected in 2025 (Author Correction, Nat. Commun. 16, 7794, DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-63201-y) — the central estimate moved from 2057 [2025-2095] to 2065 [2037-2109]; this package now uses the corrected values. A 2026 preprint (Morr et al., arXiv:2604.20341, not yet peer-reviewed) further argues the underlying statistical fingerprint/model choice is fragile enough that alternative, equally-defensible specifications push the estimate much later.
The IPCC AR6 Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (2021, Section C.3.4) states: "there is medium confidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will not collapse abruptly before 2100." Note this is not the same as the commonly-repeated shorthand "very unlikely before 2100" — "very likely" in the same AR6 passage
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