Cascading Tipping

DISCLAIMER — Real Published Network Structure, No Extra Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, verified science (Wunderling et al. 2021/2022/2024) + NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge beyond what the cited papers themselves quantify

What this is

• The real, published tipping-element interaction network from Wunderling
• et al. (2021, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601-619) covering four
• elements: the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the
• AMOC, and the Amazon rainforest.
• Real, documented pairwise coupling-strength ranges (s_ij) and
• mechanisms for each interaction, taken directly from the paper --
• including the two interactions (WAIS→AMOC, AMOC→Amazon) the paper
• itself says have an unclear net sign due to competing mechanisms.
• This package does not guess a sign where the source doesn't give one.
• Real, quantified findings: interactions reduce the effective critical
• temperature for AMOC and WAIS tipping by ~55% and ~40% respectively at
• maximum documented coupling strength (Wunderling et al. 2021); temporary
• warming overshoot scenarios can increase cascade-tipping risk by up to
• 72% relative to non-overshoot scenarios (Wund

…

cascading-tipping-utac

[](https://github.com/GenesisAeon) [](https://github.com/GenesisAeon/cascading-tipping-utac/actions/workflows/ci.yml) [](https://www.python.org) [](LICENSE) [](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21761703)

GenesisAeon Package 87 — the real, published Wunderling et al. tipping-element interaction network (Greenland Ice Sheet / West Antarctic Ice Sheet / AMOC / Amazon rainforest). Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge beyond what the cited papers themselves quantify — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• Wunderling et al. 2021 (Earth System Dynamics 12, 601-619): the
• real, documented pairwise coupling structure and mechanisms between four
• tipping elements, including two interactions the paper itself flags as
• having an unclear net sign.
• Wunderling et al. 2021: interactions reduce the effective critical
• temperature for AMOC/WAIS tipping by ~55%/~40% at maximum coupling.
• Wunderling et al. 2022 (Nature Climate Change): temporary warming
• overshoot scenarios can increase cascade risk by up to 72% vs.
• non-overshoot scenarios.
• Wunderling et al. 2024 review and Rocha et al. 2018 (Science)
• cited as real related context.

Why no extension to our own packages

permafrost-utac and carbon-sinks-utac are real GenesisAeon packages, but they are not part of Wunderling's validated four-element network. Connecting them here would be an unvalidated extension of this package's own invention — exactly the kind of forced bridge this ecosystem's climate-topic convention (see PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md) avoids by default.

Quickstart

bash pip install cascading-tipping-utac

```python from cascading_tipping_utac import TippingNetwork

net = TippingNetwork() print(net.summary())

for c in net.destabilizing_couplings(): print(f"{c.source} -> {c.target}: {c.mechanism}")

for c in net.unclear_sign_couplings(): print(f"{c.source} -> {c.target} (sign unclear): {c.mechanism}") ```

Development

bash pip install -e ".[dev]" pre-commit install ruff check src tests mypy src pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.