Climate Disease Attribution

DISCLAIMER — Real Science, Deliberately Includes a Correction, No Framework Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, independently verified science, including a real correction of the source research report's own numbers. NO UTAC/CREP/ AFET bridge.

Origin and what was found

This package was assessed and built from a user-supplied research report, klima_flucht_gesundheit.agent.final.md ("Klimakrise, Flucht und Krankheit," dated 2026-08-15, describing itself as produced via "multi-quellen-gestützte KI-Recherche"). Before building anything, the full 540-line report was read and a critical citation-integrity problem was found and flagged to the user before proceeding: the report's in-text hyperlinks are systematically mismatched to their claims. For example, the WHO 2024 dengue case count in the body text is linked with an anchor reading "(UNHCR Canada)" pointing to a UNHCR Sahel-emergency page — a link that correctly maps to a Sahel-related citation in the report's own bibliography, but is attached to the wrong sentence in the body. This pattern recurs across the disease chapter. **Because of this, no figure in this package was copied from the source

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climate-disease-attribution-utac

GenesisAeon Package 111 — climate-attributable disease burden. Independently re-verified from a "klima_flucht_gesundheit" research report's disease chapter, after finding that report's in-text citation hyperlinks were systematically mismatched to their claims (the anchor text/URL pair maps correctly in the document's own bibliography, but is attached to the wrong sentence in the body text) — every figure here was re-derived from the primary source directly, not copied from that document. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Deliberately narrower than the source report

Only the three pathways with quantitatively hard climate attribution (vector-borne, waterborne, direct heat) plus one cross-cutting synthesis metric are included. Deliberately excluded: climate- migration causality itself (the source report's own conclusion: statistically weak, contested — see its Kap. 5.1/5.2), funding/legal/ policy content, and 2025/2026 time-bound outbreak snapshots (Dougui Chad, Cox's Bazar, Zamzam) — the same "no time-bound current- conditions snapshots, no governance/policy content" precedent applied throughout this ecosystem.

Deliberately not one-sided

This package includes a real correction of the source report's own numbers, not just confirmation of its claims: source_document_figure_was_wrong() returns True — the source stated the Lancet Countdown 2025 heat-mortality rate increase since the 1990s as 23%; independent re-verification against three separate secondary reports of the same 2025 Lancet Countdown found 63%, not 23%. It also includes a claim-type honesty check: is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution() returns False — Mora et al. (2022)'s "58% of diseases are climate-sensitive" is a disease-count fraction, not the same kind of claim as a disease-burden-attribution fraction like dengue's 18%.

What's real here

• WHO (2025, Weekly Epidemiological Record)* — 2024 was the
• highest global dengue burden ever recorded: 14,434,584 cases,
• 11,201 deaths, all 6 WHO regions.
• Childs, Lyberger, Harris, Burke, Mordecai et al. (2025, PNAS)
• — a real climate-attribution estimate: 18% (95% CI: 11–27%) of
• historical dengue incidence across 21 countries is attributable to
• anthropogenic warming (>4.6M extra infections/year) — a
• probabilistic estimate with an explicit confidence interval, not a
• single deterministic number.
• WHO cholera 2024 situation reporting — **560,823 cases /
• 6,028 deaths** (final, revised); deaths rose ~50% year-on-year even
• as cases stayed roughly f

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