Extreme Vs Mean

DISCLAIMER — Real Science, No Framework Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, verified science + NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge

What this is

• Mean temperature statistics systematically understate real-world
• climate risk because impact scales with the tail of the distribution
• (the hottest days, the most extreme events), which is warming faster
• than the mean.
• Patterson (2023, Geophysical Research Letters 50, e2023GL102757):
• for England & Wales, mean summer days warmed 0.26°C/decade while the
• hottest days warmed 0.58°C/decade — roughly twice as fast. Current
• climate models reproduce the mean-warming rate accurately but
• underestimate this faster hottest-day trend, a real and acknowledged
• model limitation.
• Ballester et al. (2023, Nature Medicine 29(7), 1857-1866): an
• estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in Europe during summer 2022
• (95% CI: 37,643-86,807), driven by extreme heat exposure, not the
• seasonal mean.

What this is NOT

• Not a claim that means are meaningless. Mean statistics remain
• useful for many purposes; this package documents a specific,
• quantified gap between mean-based and extreme-based risk assessment

…

extreme-vs-mean-utac

[](https://github.com/GenesisAeon) [](https://github.com/GenesisAeon/extreme-vs-mean-utac/actions/workflows/ci.yml) [](https://www.python.org) [](LICENSE) [](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21798242)

GenesisAeon Package 94 — real extreme-event-vs-mean-statistics climate science. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• Patterson (2023, Geophysical Research Letters): hottest days in
• North-West Europe warm roughly twice as fast (0.58°C/decade) as mean
• summer days (0.26°C/decade).
• Ballester et al. (2023, Nature Medicine): 61,672 estimated
• heat-related deaths in Europe, summer 2022 alone.
• Documents a real, quantified gap between mean-based and extreme-based
• climate risk assessment — see DISCLAIMER.md.

Quickstart

bash pip install extreme-vs-mean-utac

```python from extreme_vs_mean_utac import extreme_to_mean_warming_ratio

print(extreme_to_mean_warming_ratio()) # ~2.23 ```

Development

bash pip install -e ".[dev]" pre-commit install ruff check src tests mypy src pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.