Invasive Species

DISCLAIMER — Real Science, No Invented Bridge Constant, Includes a Complication

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, independently verified science. NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge, NO invented Γ value.

Where this package came from

Last of the five candidate gap-topics identified from UTACnextSteps.txt (Grok + a separate Claude-Code-Web session proposing 5 environment/climate/species-protection gap-topics for GenesisAeon). See coral-reef-utac (P114)'s DISCLAIMER.md for the full account of why that dialogue's specific numeric claims — invented Γ_tipping values, an invented "Pressure-inverted UTAC" formula falsely presented as extracted from the codebase, a wrong "strict GPL-3.0 template" claim, and a non-existent git branch — did not survive independent verification, confirmed by the other session itself when the discrepancies were surfaced back to it.

Grok's original framing ("invasive species and trophic cascades as emergent resonance/entropy processes... complements the governance packages") was not adopted as stated — no real, independently- derivable Γ or entropy-process value exists for invasion dynamics in the literature surveyed here. Instead, this

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invasive-species-utac

GenesisAeon Package 117 — real, independently verified invasive- species scale, trophic-cascade, and management science. Last of the five candidate gap-topics from UTACnextSteps.txt (after coral-reef-utac P114, biodiversity-utac P115, pollinator-network-utac P116). Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge and no invented Γ value — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Deliberately not one-sided

is_invasion_an_inevitable_outcome_of_introduction() and is_eradication_success_rare() both return False — Williamson & Fitter's (1996) "tens rule" shows most species introductions never become invasive, and Spatz et al. (2022)'s real DIISE data shows island invasive-species eradication succeeds 88% of the time (1,550 real attempts, 998 islands). Invasion is not an inevitable, one-way, unmanageable ratchet.

What's real here

• IPBES (2023) Thematic Assessment on Invasive Alien Species — the
• real, official first global assessment: economic cost exceeded USD
• 423 billion/year as of 2019, quadrupling every decade since 1970;
• invasive species have contributed to 60% of recorded global
• extinctions. Of 37,000+ introduced alien species, just over 3,500
• are classified as harmful invasive — a real minority.
• Marshall (2018, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic
• Sciences)* — a real, causally-resolved trophic cascade: Nile perch
• introduced to Lake Victoria in the 1950s drove more than 200 endemic
• cichlid species to extinction by the 1980s, with a real second-order
• effect (loss of algae-grazing cichlids contributing to lake
• eutrophication) beyond the direct predation.
• Williamson & Fitter (1996, Ecology)* — the foundational "tens
• rule": roughly 10% of introductions establish, roughly 10% of those
• become invasive — most introduced species do not become a problem.
• Spatz et al. (2022, Scientific Reports)* — the honesty-check
• citation: a real synthesis of over 100 years of island invasive-
• vertebrate eradication attempts, 88% success rate.

Quickstart

bash pip install invasive-species-utac

```python from invasive_species_utac import ( GLOBAL_SCALE, harmful_fraction_of_introduced_species, LAKE_VICTORIA_CASCADE, does_the_cascade_stop_at_direct_predation, TENS_RULE, rough_fraction_of_introductions_becoming_invasive, ERADICATION_RECORD, is_eradication_success_rare, )

print(GLOBAL_SCALE.annual_cost_usd_billion) # 423.0 print(round(harmful_fraction_of_introduced_species(), 3)) # ~0.095 print(LAKE_VICTORIA_CASCADE.cichlid_species_lost) # 200 print(round(rough_fraction_of_introductions_becoming_invasive(), 3

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