Permafrost

DISCLAIMER — Real Climate Data, Deliberately No Framework Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, verified science (ESA CCI Permafrost v5.0, Schuur et al. 2022) + NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge, by deliberate choice

What this is

• A correct, citation-checked (2026-08-02) loader and reference-data module
• for ESA CCI Permafrost v5.0 (real satellite dataset, DOI
• 10.5285/a6fbedd8ee5b472c8e84e55f746c1704, University of Oslo/CEDA,
• 1997-2023, 1 km resolution)
• Real carbon-stock and emission-scenario figures from Schuur et al. 2022
• (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 47, 343-371)
• An honest structural note (NOT_A_BISTABLE_TIPPING_ELEMENT_NOTE) that
• permafrost thaw is NOT a classical bistable tipping element per IPCC
• AR6 — it's a gradual, self-amplifying feedback with regional abrupt
• events (thermokarst), a structurally different kind of risk than e.g.
• AMOC collapse
• Disclosed real limitations: the Siberia ground-station data gap since
• 2022, and why GRACE/GRACE-FO gravimetry is too coarse for this domain

What this is NOT

• This package does not implement any UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge. This is
• a deliberate choice, not an over

…

permafrost-utac

[](https://github.com/GenesisAeon) [](https://github.com/GenesisAeon/permafrost-utac/actions/workflows/ci.yml) [](https://www.python.org) [](LICENSE) [](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21760126)

GenesisAeon Package 60 — real ESA CCI Permafrost v5.0 data and Schuur et al. 2022 carbon-stock science. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• ESA CCI Permafrost v5.0: real satellite dataset (University of
• Oslo/CEDA, DOI 10.5285/a6fbedd8ee5b472c8e84e55f746c1704), 1997-2023,
• 1 km resolution, MAGT/active-layer-thickness/extent.
• Schuur et al. 2022 (Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
• 47, 343-371): permafrost carbon stock 1460-1600 GtC, and modeled
• emission ranges under 2C/4C warming by 2100.
• An explicit structural note that permafrost thaw is not a classical
• bistable tipping element (IPCC AR6) — a gradual, self-amplifying
• feedback with regional abrupt events (thermokarst), not a single global
• bifurcation point.

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge

Unlike several other GenesisAeon packages, this one deliberately does not propose a Gamma/CREP hypothesis for permafrost. Climate-topic packages in this ecosystem default to presenting real data on its own terms, without a speculative framework bridge, unless one clearly and genuinely fits — see DISCLAIMER.md for the full reasoning.

Quickstart

bash pip install permafrost-utac # for real ESA CCI NetCDF loading: pip install "permafrost-utac[data]"

```python from permafrost_utac import SyntheticPermafrostData, carbon_stock_gt

print(f"Permafrost carbon stock: ~{carbon_stock_gt():.0f} GtC")

series = SyntheticPermafrostData.generate_fraction_series() for year, fraction in list(series.items())[:3]: print(year, fraction) ```

Development

bash pip install -e ".[dev,data]" pre-commit install ruff check src tests mypy src pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.