Marine Heatwave

DISCLAIMER — Real Marine Heatwave Science, Regionally Heterogeneous

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, independently verified science. NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge, NO invented Gamma value.

Where this package came from

Built alongside el-nino-amplification-utac (P118) and antarctic-ice-shelf-utac (P120), all three surfaced by a single broad DeepResearch pass (2026-08-31) on El Nino/ENSO and climate topics, requested by Johann after sharing a scinexx.de article on Cole et al. 2026's El Nino coral-record findings. Checked directly against PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md: no existing package covers marine heatwaves.

The citation was independently verified via direct WebFetch against agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JC023614 (this specific paper's page resolved successfully, unlike two other AGU pages cited in the companion El Nino package, which returned HTTP 403 to automated fetches and had to be verified via alternate sources).

Why the depth-heterogeneity module exists

depth_signal_is_spatially_uniform() returns False on purpose. It would be simpler to report a single "marine heatwaves reach ~90m depth" average, but Gulakaram et al. (2026)

…

marine-heatwave-utac

GenesisAeon Package 119 — real marine heatwave frequency, duration, and depth-penetration trends for Southeast Asia, plus a real, literature- reported coupling to El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Where this package came from

Built alongside el-nino-amplification-utac (P118) and antarctic-ice-shelf-utac (P120) from a single broad DeepResearch pass (2026-08-31). Checked directly against PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md: no existing package covered marine heatwaves.

What's real here

• Gulakaram et al. (2026, JGR: Oceans)* — marine heatwave
• frequency up 108% and duration up 63% in Southeast Asia
• (2003-2023 vs. 1982-2002); event rate rose from <2/year in the 1980s
• to 5/year by the 2010s.
• Depth penetration — surface-intensified warming reaches ~25m
• broadly; subsurface-intensified signals reach up to 131m in the
• tropical western Pacific but only 56m in the South China Sea — a
• real regional difference, not a single averaged depth.
• Climate mode coupling — the strongest recorded events (1998,
• 2015-2016) coincided with concurrent El Nino and positive Indian
• Ocean Dipole phases, a real compounding-effect finding linking this
• package to el-nino-amplification-utac.

Deliberately not one-sided

depth_signal_is_spatially_uniform() returns False — the western Pacific and South China Sea depth signals differ by more than a factor of two; this package documents both rather than reporting one averaged number.

Installation

bash pip install marine-heatwave-utac

Quick start

```python from marine_heatwave_utac import ( frequency_increase_pct, duration_increase_pct, depth_signal_is_spatially_uniform, is_strongest_mhw_linked_to_multiple_climate_modes, )

frequency_increase_pct() # 108.0 duration_increase_pct() # 63.0 depth_signal_is_spatially_uniform() # False -- the honesty check is_strongest_mhw_linked_to_multiple_climate_modes() # True ```

License

Code: MIT. Documentation/data notes: see DISCLAIMER.md.

Citation

See CITATION.cff.