Glacial Seismicity

DISCLAIMER — Two Confidence Tiers, No Framework Bridge, Two Corrections

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Core = real, independently re-verified science, with two source-document errors corrected. Documented = real but not independently re-verified this session. NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge.

Core tier — real, independently re-verified 2026-08-11

Every figure below was checked directly against the paper (DOI lookup, publisher abstract, or press summary) on 2026-08-11 — not just copied from the source research dialogue (Glacialschmelze_Tektonik.txt, a Grok + MSCopilot synthesis) this package originates from.

• Pärvie Fault, Fennoscandia: the world's longest known postglacial
• fault, 155 km, 3-10 m surface offset, M8.0±0.4, active shortly after
• deglaciation ~10 ka. Lagerbäck & Sundh (2008, SGU Research Paper
• C836); Juhlin et al. (2015, Solid Earth 6, 621-635, DOI:
• 10.5194/se-6-621-2015).
• Charlevoix Seismic Zone, eastern Canada: 1663 earthquake M7.5±0.45
• (Ebel 2011, BSSA 101(3), 1024-1038, DOI: 10.1785/0120100190).
• Present-day GIA rebound stress in the zone is real but low, ~10 MPa,
• "a non-negligible source of stress perturbation" (Verde

…

glacial-seismicity-utac

GenesisAeon Package 101 — Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and glacially-induced/modulated seismicity. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Two explicit confidence tiers

• Core (mechanics, historic, modern): real, peer-reviewed
• findings independently re-verified 2026-08-11 via direct paper/DOI
• lookup. **Two numbers from the source research dialogue
• (Glacialschmelze_Tektonik.txt) were found to be wrong during this
• verification and are corrected here** — see ALASKA_CORRECTION_NOTE.
• Documented (regions.py's four extra entries): real regions
• carried over from the source dialogue without the same independent
• re-verification. Every entry's confidence field says which tier
• it's in.

What's real here (core)

• Historic deglaciation (~20-8 ka) — GIA as primary driver:
• the Pärvie Fault, Fennoscandia (155 km long, the world's longest
• known postglacial fault, M8.0±0.4) and the Charlevoix Seismic Zone,
• eastern Canada (1663 earthquake, M7.5±0.45; present GIA rebound
• stress ~10 MPa, "a non-negligible source of stress perturbation" per
• Verdecchia et al. 2022).
• Modern glacier retreat — GIA as modulator: the Fairweather
• Fault/Glacier Bay Icefield, Alaska (Rollins et al. 2021 — >3,000 km³
• ice lost since ~1770, ~0.2-0.6 MPa Coulomb stress increase at the
• site of the 1958 Mw7.8 rupture); the Mont Blanc massif (Simon et al.
• 2025 — seismic hazard up ~2 orders of magnitude since 2015 from
• meltwater pore pressure); and present-day eastern North America
• (Hightower & Gurnis 2025 — <2 MPa background, 3-4 MPa near
• pre-existing weak zones).
• Coulomb Failure Stress mechanics (mechanics.py): standard
• rock-mechanics physics (King, Stein & Lin 1994) for lithostatic
• unloading and meltwater pore-pressure effects on fault stability.

What was corrected

The source dialogue's Alaska case originally claimed ">1200 km³" ice loss and "2-3 MPa" stress change. Independent verification against Rollins et al. (2021) found the real figures are >3,000 km³ ice loss (understated by ~2.5x) and ~0.2-0.6 MPa stress change (overstated by ~5-10x). See ALASKA_CORRECTION_NOTE.

What's documented but not independently re-verified

Greenland (historic), Iceland, High Mountain Asia and Patagonia (modern) — real regions from the source literature synthesis, kept for completeness but flagged (confidence="documented") since they didn't get the same direct paper-by-paper check as the five core cases.

Quickstart

bash pip install glacial-seismicity-utac

```python from glacial_seismi

…