Glacier Buffer Replacement

DISCLAIMER — Two Confidence Tiers, No Framework Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Core = real, independently re-verified science. Optional = weakly sourced or literally unpublished, always flagged. NO UTAC/CREP/ AFET bridge.

v1.1.0 (2026-08-11) adds sediment_volume_loss_from_mass_input_m3() to reservoir.py: a mass-balance sedimentation model (sediment mass input / bulk density = volume loss), complementing the existing area×rate×time model. The ~2200 kg/m³ default density is attributed to the same Steffen et al. (2022) source already cited below, but — unlike every other core-tier figure in this file — that specific density value was not independently re-verified via a fresh 2026-08-11 lookup; it was carried over from a later revision of the source AGBR report. Treat it as documented, not re-confirmed, until checked directly.

Core tier — real, independently re-verified 2026-08-10

Every figure below was checked directly against the paper (DOI lookup, publisher page, or a press summary from the publishing institution) on 2026-08-10 — not just copied from the GeminiDeepResearch report (Ersatz alpiner Gletscherpuffer.md) this package originate

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glacier-buffer-replacement-utac

GenesisAeon Package 100 — companion to glacier-buffer-utac (P99, the loss side). This package covers the replacement/mitigation side: Artificial Glacier Buffer Replacement (AGBR). Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Two explicit confidence tiers

• Core (reservoir, mar, evaporation, mass_balance): real,
• peer-reviewed findings independently re-verified 2026-08-10 via direct
• paper/DOI lookup — not just copied from the originating DeepResearch
• report.
• Optional / speculative (peatland, rrf): weakly sourced or
• literally unpublished figures, kept because they were part of the
• original discussion. Always exposed with an explicit warning constant
• (PEATLAND_WEAK_SOURCE_WARNING, RRF_NOT_PEER_REVIEWED_WARNING).

What's real here (core)

• Farinotti, Pistocchi & Huss (2016, Environmental Research Letters):
• an optimally sited dam/reservoir strategy could offset up to 65%
• of the projected end-of-century summer-runoff change in the European
• Alps — a real, verified ceiling, not a guarantee.
• Steffen et al. (2022, Earth Surface Dynamics): 683 potential new
• Swiss proglacial lakes, 1.16 km³ total potential volume — but only
• ~10% realized by 2050 and ~48% by 2100 under a middle-of-the-road
• scenario.
• Fabbri et al. (2021, Swiss Journal of Geosciences): real Lake Brienz
• sedimentation rates (3.0 cm/yr average, up to 4.7 cm/yr near deltas) —
• the physical limiter on how long a proglacial reservoir stays useful.
• v1.1.0 adds a second, mass-balance-based sedimentation model,
• sediment_volume_loss_from_mass_input_m3(): given a sediment mass
• input rate (kg/yr), converts it to a volume-loss rate via a bulk
• sediment density of ~2200 kg/m³ (attributed to the same Steffen et
• al. 2022 source as the proglacial-lake figures, though this specific
• density value wasn't independently re-verified — see DISCLAIMER.md).
• Ochoa-Tocachi et al. (2019, Nature Sustainability) and Jodar et al.
• (2022, Science of the Total Environment): two real, operating
• Managed Aquifer Recharge systems (Peruvian amunas, Spanish acequias de
• careo) — 45-day mean retention, +92% aquifer recharge respectively.
• Jin et al. (2023, Nature Sustainability) and Ilgen et al. (2024,
• Hydrological Sciences Journal): floating-solar evaporation
• mitigation, up to 49.7% at the Aswan High Dam's 90%-coverage case
• study.
• The core mass-balance argument (mass_balance.py): **full
• replacement of a glacier's hydrological buffer is physically
• impos

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