Paraglacial Hazard

DISCLAIMER — Real Science, No Framework Bridge

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge: not only because the cited literature already provides the necessary quantitative structure -- a deliberate choice. This project's highly speculative AFET/UTAC experiments must never stand in the way of climate/ecology topics being accessible and usable to people who don't work inside that construct and aren't looking for renormalization groups. Real, checkable science, without the burden of an unproven framework. See PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md's "Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge in the climate/ecology series" (2026-08-31) in the GenesisAeon workspace root for the full canonical note.

Status: Real, independently verified science. NO UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge.

What this is

Every figure in this package was checked directly against the paper (DOI lookup, publisher abstract, or press summary) on 2026-08-14.

• Grosset, Mazzotti & Vernant (2023), Solid Earth 14, 1067-1081,
• DOI: 10.5194/se-14-1067-2023 — a real, contrasting GIA case for the
• Western Alps: GIA explains much of the observed geodetic strain rate
• but its stress perturbations tend to either inhibit fault slip or
• promote the wrong failure mechanism relative to observed seismicity.
• The authors conclude GIA does not drive or promote the Western Alps'
• current seismicity — even though seismic hazard studies there still
• need detailed GIA modeling for other reasons. This complements, not
• contradicts, P101's Alaska case (where GIA-induced stress plausibly
• did help promote the 1958 Fairweather Fault earthquake).
• Ballantyne (2002), Quaternary Science Reviews 21(18-19),
• 1935-2017, DOI: 10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00005-7 — the foundational,
• extremely widely cited paraglacial-geomorphology review. R

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paraglacial-hazard-utac

GenesisAeon Package 102 — paraglacial and geophysical hazard science. Companion to glacial-seismicity-utac (P101): extends GIA/seismicity with a real contrasting case, and adds two more real paraglacial hazard domains. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• GIA context (gia_context.py): Grosset, Mazzotti & Vernant
• (2023, Solid Earth) — in the Western Alps, GIA explains much of
• the observed geodetic deformation but does not drive the
• observed seismicity. A real contrast to P101's Alaska/Fairweather
• case, where GIA-induced stress plausibly did help promote a specific
• large earthquake. GIA "explains deformation" and "drives seismicity"
• are two independent questions — this module makes that explicit.
• Permafrost & rock-slope instability (slope_instability.py):
• Ballantyne (2002)'s foundational paraglacial-geomorphology concept
• (post-deglaciation landscapes are unstable, activity declines over
• time) plus a real, recent dataset — Fey, Wichmann & Zangerl (2025,
• ESPL) found permafrost terrain (22% of their Eastern Alps study
• area) hosts 76% of rockfalls, and terrain deglaciated since 1969
• (4.7% of the area) hosts 40% of rockfalls. Mechanism: Gruber &
• Haeberli (2007, JGR).
• GLOF exposure (glof.py): Taylor, Robinson, Dunning et al.
• (2023, Nature Communications) — 15 million people globally exposed
• to glacial lake outburst flood risk, over half in India, Pakistan,
• Peru and China. Lützow, Veh & Korup (2023, ESSD) — the historic
• event record (3,151 events, 850–2022 CE, 27 countries) is dominated
• by NW North America and Iceland instead — **event frequency and
• human exposure are different, weakly correlated risk axes.**

Quickstart

bash pip install paraglacial-hazard-utac

```python from paraglacial_hazard_utac import ( WESTERN_ALPS, is_deformation_seismicity_paradox, permafrost_overrepresentation_factor, recently_deglaciated_overrepresentation_factor, GLOBAL_EXPOSURE, HISTORIC_RECORD, )

print(is_deformation_seismicity_paradox(WESTERN_ALPS)) # True print(permafrost_overrepresentation_factor()) # ~3.45 print(recently_deglaciated_overrepresentation_factor()) # ~8.5 print(GLOBAL_EXPOSURE.exposed_population_millions) # 15.0 print(HISTORIC_RECORD.nw_north_america_share_pct) # 26.0 ```

Development

bash pip install -e ".[dev]" pre-commit install ruff check src tests mypy src pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and [.zenod

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